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Betting on the Oscars?

Not that anyone at CSULB gambles, but one of the most fun activities concerning entertainment Kudos is divining the winners — whether to win some extra cash off your friends, or for a plain opportunity to gain some bragging rights for your psychic predicting power, it is always fun to guess the winners. In case you are like most of the viewing public and have not seen most of the films up for awards, I am here to assist you with information from an obsessive observer.
Best Actress – Kate Winslet
This is her year. The Academy must have gotten together and decided they would not double-nominate her so as to solidify her chances for victory. Unlike the Golden Globes, the Oscars have actual rules that govern the status of a performance, and this was not a supporting role. While incredible in “Revolutionary Road,” she astounds as a conflicted, illiterate Nazi prison guard in “The Reader.”
Best Supporting Actress – Penélope Cruz
This is one of the more difficult categories, so I have to go with my gut. Penelope Cruz defies genre in this performance. Granted, it helps that she has an excellent script by Woody Allen to guide her, but she really delivers as a passionate artist in “Vicky Christina Barcelona.” Aside from that, Stephen Colbert said she would win using The DaColbert Code. You cannot go wrong when my gut and The DaColbert Code agree.
Best Actor – Sean Penn
Conventional wisdom favors Mickey Rourke for this award, but the success of Proposition 8 will put Gay rights front and center with many Academy voters. Some members may go out of their way to reward this film to get more attention for it. Sean Penn’s portrayal of Harvey Milk is easily one of the best of his career. It’s good to see him play a happy man again.
Best Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger
Tragic death mixed with tons of hype is Oscar Gold.
Best Picture – “Slumdog Millionaire”
This movie seems impossible, yet it is thoroughly captivating. It seems naively optimistic, but deals frankly with human trafficking and the cultural effects of globalization. However, “Slumdog Millionaire” is much more than an issue movie — it is a beautiful love story, a dark comedy, and a family drama all rolled into one. I don’t think I know anyone who has seen this movie without it exceeding their expectations. It is undeniably good and deserves to win (the only way I can see it losing is to “Milk” as a political statement).
And for the more thoroughly involved predictors:
Best Director – Danny Boyle (“Slumdog Millionaire”). It’s a beautiful thing to see when he is at the top of his game.
Best Animated Feature – “WALL-E.” Does anyone really doubt this?
Best Documentary – “Man on Wire.” A rare specimen and a documentary that is really fun to watch.
Best Foreign Language Film – “Waltz With Bashir.” This piece deals with an ongoing, difficult conflict with honesty and objectivity: not an easy feat.
Best Adapted Screenplay – Simon Beaufoy (“Slumdog Millionaire”). He doesn’t have to bastardize Fitzgerald.
Best Original Screenplay-Dustin Lance Black (“Milk”). He is the best looking writer nominated since Diablo Cody (though I hope Martin McDonagh will win).
Achievement in Cinematography- Anthony Dod Mantle (“Slumdog Millionaire”). For you film majors, this movie blends 2K and 35mm seamlessly. That blows my mind.
Achievements in Visual Effects and Makeup – “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” The aging process is shockingly convincing in this movie.
Achievements in Music (Score and Original Song)- A.R. Rahman (“Slumdog Millionaire”).It will be really cool if M.I.A. wins an Oscar: if only she were still pregnant.
Achievement in Sound Editing – “The Dark Knight.” This kind of technical award often goes to a more commercial movie.
Achievement in Sound Mixing – “WALL-E.” Try watching this movie on mute. The robot looks much less cute without his sound effects.
Achievement in Film Editing – “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” It is difficult to put together a three hour movie with as much footage as they must have amassed.
As for the short films and the costumes, no one really cares but the people who are competing and voting. For those, your guess is as good as mine. Good luck with the wagers nobody makes.

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