Sports predictions can be brutal. Take the MLB postseason column I wrote a couple weeks ago (that I’m sure you read), for example. I got every prediction wrong. That’s what makes sports great and horrible at the same time, and why we’re better off embracing the unexpected rather than trying to control it.
For the Wild Card round, I picked the Oakland A’s to beat the Kansas City Royals, and the San Francisco Giants to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wait a minute, I got one right. The Pirates, for some reason, put their season in the hands of erratic right-hander Edinson Volquez. Volquez imploded, and the Giants won 8-0.
I was completely wrong about the Royals. Maybe it’s because I didn’t watch them on a regular basis during the season, or because baseball is a random sport with games that are decided by luck more often than people want to admit.
The Royals deserve plenty of credit, though. They came back to beat in the A’s in extra innings of the Wild Card game. They combined great pitching with otherworldly defense, and have just enough power hitters like Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas in their lineup to hit a few home runs on occasion. They also sold their souls to the devil for a World Series title, so that helps too.
The rest of my picks were almost as bad as the Dodgers’ bullpen. Almost.
I predicted for the Detroit Tigers to beat the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Division Series, and I stand by that pick. The Tigers had three former Cy Young award winners who started the first three games of the series. Sure, the first two were in Baltimore, and Detroit’s bullpen was a disaster in waiting.
The Tigers’ worst case scenario unraveled in a painful fashion. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price didn’t dominate deep into their respective starts, and rookie manager Brad Ausmus had to rely on a terrible bullpen.
The Washington Nationals-New York Giants Division Series always felt like a toss-up. Ignore my use of hindsight for a second. Both teams had great starting pitchers and enough quality hitters to make a deep run in the postseason. I picked the Nationals – like you’re not tired of seeing the Giants in the World Series every other year, too.
Let’s see what else. The Dodgers series. The reason I thought the Dodgers would make the World Series is the same reason I thought they would lose it. At some point they were going to have to pitch Clayton Kershaw on short rest. I just didn’t think it would be in the Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
There’s plenty of blame to go around for another NLDS loss to the Cardinals. Manager Don Mattingly’s decision to start Kershaw on three days’ rest was not a smart move.
Deciding to bench your best position player because he had 12 bad at-bats? Another bad choice.
Benching Yasiel Puig was an egregious decision, and the bullpen former general manager Ned Colletti assembled was a mix of kerosene and lit cigarettes.
You can rejoice, though, Dodgers fans. The team just hired one of the best executives in baseball in former Tampa Bay Rays general manager Andrew Friedman. It’s a shame we won’t see Colletti throw money into a woodchipper anymore, though.
There’s really no way to predict outcomes in sports games, and this MLB postseason proved it. Five and seven games for series are incredibly small sample sizes for teams that just played a 162-game season. Even the most obscure player can make an impact, and baseball’s randomness assures that we’ll witness the craziness. So, sit back, and enjoy the unexpected.